Managed Opportunities 2026 1st Quarter Review
Managed Opportunities 2026 1st Quarter Review
April 2026
Managed Opportunities 2026 - First Quarter Review
We had a strong return to start off 2026. While there is much work ahead, we are excited about the number of near-term catalysts developing across the portfolio.
Patience and Perspective As long-term investors, we are well acquainted with periods when it seems little is happening. Patience is the operative message. As 2025 turned to 2026 we have had a flurry of activity in the first quarter with more anticipated developments expected during the 2nd quarter and remainder of the year.
While it appears we are on the cusp of yet another burst of inflation as consequence of war in the Middle East, we are acutely focused on the opportunity set over the next 2-3 years. We continue to believe our portfolio has outsized return potential.
As contrarian value investors we are trained and instinctively gravitate toward areas of the market less frequently followed by conventional investors and Wall Street analysts. These less-crowded areas of the market we believe have the greatest inefficiencies – and where we believe the greatest opportunities are found. Much of the investment world has huddled into various indexed strategies, often overwhelmingly dominated by large technology companies. This creates a wide opportunity for overlooked and misunderstood companies. Wall Street generally also has a short time horizon. What were the past quarter’s results? What are the current year’s estimates? We differentiate and distinguish ourselves by taking a longer horizon view of our investments. As we look beyond the short-term window, we eliminate competition and increase potential opportunities. This approach has served us well for 27 years and currently presents us with perhaps the most compelling opportunity set we have seen. We believe it is a fabulous time to be a long-term fundamental investor. Perhaps that is a view consistent with our contrarian nature.
The Changing Face of the Market What if the “market” is at an inflection point? Over the last decade, the S&P 500 Index has delivered exceptional returns to investors. The performance or outperformance by historical standards was driven by large technology companies, such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and Google. These companies generated tremendous cash flow with unparallelled profit margins. No wonder they grew to valuations in the trillions.
However, those companies are departing from their core businesses of chip design, software, cloud services, social networking, and search to develop highly capital-intensive computing power for artificial intelligence models. Ironically, these companies were the beneficiaries of prior tech booms. This time they are the firms competing to fund the AI investments.
We have no favorite horse in the race when it comes to identifying the technology winners of AI investment. Instead, our preexisting investments in long-duration, tangible assets, land, energy, water, and other scarce vital natural resources appear to be beneficiaries of the competitors in the AI horse race.
Updates on Key Investments For the large tech companies to be successful in their pursuit of artificial intelligence, there is no alternative to using vast amounts of power. Our country currently does not have sufficient supply of electricity to power this increase in demand. What follows is how some of our portfolio holdings may prosper in the AI race. Our largest investment, Texas Pacific Land (TPL), was a significant contributor to gains during the quarter. TPL owns almost 900,000 acres of land and a vast mineral portfolio of oil and gas royalties in West Texas. Historically the company has been cyclically sensitive to oil and gas prices. This is evolving as the company’s land, power and water are coveted by large scale data center development.
At the end of 2025, TPL announced a strategic agreement with Bolt Data & Energy to enable large scale data center campuses and supporting infrastructure across TPL land. Bolt is co-founded by Eric Schmidt, the former CEO and Chairman of Google, who also serves as Bolt’s Chairman. Schmidt is quoted as saying about Bolt, “our goal is to create the largest and most efficient data center company in the world, by combining energy production, scalable data infrastructure and the largest land expansion runway in North America.”
During the Q4 earnings call, TPL management noted that as part of the agreement, the company received the right of first refusal to supply water to Bolt affiliated projects and infrastructure. The company also noted they were working on other projects not limited to Bolt and expressed confidence that broader development coming to the Permian would have a significant impact on TPL’s water business.
LandBridge, another portfolio investment, recently hosted an investor day, providing details and guidance on its current endeavors and future prospects for itself and its affiliated company, WaterBridge. They noted robust activity related to land development, water delivery and fiber optics, and a deep pipeline of projects and expectations on sharing developments in the coming months.
Permian Basin Trust already has a second court hearing regarding amendments to its governing Trust document. The hearing is scheduled for early May. A positive court result we believe could unlock large possibilities for its future business prospects. We are watching developments closely. We are quite confident we have moved past the “if” stage of data center development in West Texas. The open question(s) now are when and what is the clearing price. These are large complex projects that take time to develop. There is no first mover advantage, in fact there might be a disadvantage. We believe there will be many opportunities for the carefully prepared operator, and the land is not going anywhere.
Something Different – Searching for Croupiers - Urbana and MIAX There is opportunity outside of land and royalty companies. An area that has long been a core focus within our portfolio is investments in security exchanges and owning the business that operates the exchange. There are many facets of the exchange business we find compelling. Generally, these businesses have significant operating leverage, high returns on equity and a practical competitive moat from the required licenses and government regulations.
As exchanges consolidate, businesses are capturing global diversification, functionally allowing for continuous trading, outside of the historical Monday – Friday daytime hours. The evolution of “prediction markets” is also creating significant new listings that trade constantly. As technology advances, we expect that market participants will demand same-day settlement that may be facilitated by blockchain technologies.
Urbana Corp. is a Canadian closed-end investment company, with a focus on investments in security exchanges and trading platforms. Approximately 50% of Urbana’s investments are in other publicly traded companies and 50% in private businesses. Over time, management has done an excellent job growing shareholder equity with an annual rate of 15.3% since inception in 2002 and more recently 19.5% over the last 3 years.
Urbana’s shares currently trade at a meaningful discount to net asset value (~30%), providing a margin of safety to our investment. As a result, we believe we are paying virtually nothing for its compelling private equity portfolio. A core holding in Urbana is an investment in Miami International Holdings or MIAX. We own shares of MIAX directly as well. MIAX has evolved from a small equity options exchange, transforming its business into a well-diversified exchange across asset classes.
MIAX is well managed and has been proficient in developing its technology. Developing new trading systems without the limitations of preexisting legacy systems is a competitive advantage for MIAX as it continues to grow and take market share from competitors. After completing a multi-year project developing technology for futures trading, and completing its initial public offering last year, MIAX is well positioned to challenge the dominant exchanges such as CME and ICE.
Housekeeping The annual distribution of our ADV Part 2 business practices disclosure and ADV Part 3 customer relationship summary disclosure has been posted to your investor portal. Separately, Fidelity has mailed or emailed copies of 2025 Tax Information Statements (1099s), if you have not received or have questions, please let us know or have your accountant contact us directly. We and our families are the largest investor group at Mad River. We are genuinely excited about the potential of our current investments and the broader opportunity set for our strategy.
Thank you for partnering with us.
Best regards,
Rick Silver & Josh Stewart
Important Disclosure on Model Performance: For the purpose of presenting historical performance information, we reference and present the performance of our Model. While limitations exist with models, we believe our Model offers a reasonable assessment of the typical performance of our historical investment selections for clients. Our Model is based on a taxable portfolio investing since the inception of the investment strategy in March 1999. The Model is presented net of all fees (adjusted to the highest annual fee charged to clients), brokerage expenses, and includes the reinvestment of dividends and interest. The Model generally reflects the performance of portfolios under management since the strategy’s inception in 1999. Client performance will deviate from the Model due to, among other reasons, the starting point of a client relationship; client guidelines, circumstances, and directives; the size of a portfolio and its relative costs; additions and withdrawals of funds; the timing and historical position sizing and concentration of investments; and the account type and its ability to participate in certain investments. During this period there were no strategies employed to obtain the results portrayed other than those implemented for clients pursuant to the Model and disclosed in our Form ADV. Please carefully review our Form ADV for further information. We encourage and strongly recommend that you discuss with us the application, correlation, and significance of the Model’s performance to our client’s historical returns.
Important Disclosure on Benchmark Comparison: The S&P Composite is regarded as a gauge of the US equity market. This index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the US economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, we believe it serves as a reasonable proxy for the US market. Nonetheless, the use of the S&P Composite as a comparison may not be appropriate for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to, Model and client account(s) being more concentrated; volatile; holding cash, fixed income investments, and/or option contracts; being short securities; or the average capitalization of companies comprising the Index not correlating with the capitalization of the companies comprising the Model.
Important General Investing Disclosure: Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss of capital, past performance is not indicative of future results, and the value of investments and the income derived from investments may increase or decrease. It is not our intention to state, indicate or imply that future investment results will be profitable or equal past results. The information presented is meant to form the basis of a discussion with us and is subject to further clarification and explanation during discussions with us. This information may not be duplicated, redistributed, or communicated to others without our consent. This is not an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such an action is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. We do not provide tax or legal advice to our clients, and you are strongly urged to consult a tax or legal advisor regarding any potential investment strategy.
This communication may include opinions and forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are opinions and/or forward-looking statements (including words such as “believe,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “should,” and “expect”). Although we believe that the beliefs and expectations discussed are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such beliefs and expectations will prove to be correct. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Any dated information is published as of its date only. Dated and forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. We undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any dated or forward-looking statements. Investment process, strategies, philosophies, portfolio composition and allocations, security selection criteria and other parameters are current as of the date indicated and are subject to change without prior notice. 1/2026